Discover key trends and stats for Cheltenham Day 3 to help steer your betting tactics. Being aware of these could help you pick a reliable horse in 2026!
The third day at Cheltenham Festival, also known as St. Patrick’s Thursday, is one that hosts multiple championship races and is known for having a top-class atmosphere. Containing two feature races as well, this is the celebration.
But what can we learn from looking into the previous editions of day three at Cheltenham? Learning about the stats and trends that have cropped up over time can help form your betting strategies and give you a better idea of what to do, especially if you’re new.
To give you a head start on preparing for Cheltenham Festival, we have put together some important statistics and trends that have become apparent in the last ten years.
Cheltenham Festival day 3 trends by race
Day three of Cheltenham Festival attracts thousands of punters that fill the racecourse to see races that will take over the news headlines. Formatting it by individual race, we have put together an overview of stats and trends that could influence how you bet on Cheltenham races in the future!
Mares Novices’ Hurdle (13:20)
To begin Cheltenham day three is the Ryanair Mares Novices’ Hurdle, with the average starting odds for the last ten winners being 11.17/1 – but this is partially inflated with winners in the last three years having higher odds.
Looking at the last decade, the favourite has won the race 30 per cent of the time. These wins did come consecutively between 2016 and 2018 though, meaning that they haven’t won at all in the last seven meets!
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 3 (2018, 2017, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 16/1 (Air Of Entitlement, 2025), 10/1 (Golden Ace, 2024), 16/1 (You Wear It Well, 2023), 15/2 (Love Envoi, 2022), 5/1 (Telmesomethinggirl, 2021), 9/2 (Concertista, 2020), 50/1 (Eglantine Du Seuil, 2019), 4/7 (Laurina, 2018), 11/8 (Let’s Dance, 2017), 8/11 (Limini, 2016).
Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (14:00)
The second race of the day is the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase, being the only novice handicap chase at the entire festival. Winners have entered the race with average odds of 4.37/1 over the last ten years, seemingly leaning towards horses that are in the upper end of the market.
However, when reviewing the past ten years, the favourites have seen success in just 40 per cent of the races. This now suggests that there is a strong chance for outsiders to pull positive results out of the bag instead.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 4 (2024, 2019, 2017, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 7/1 (Caldwell Potter, 2025), 5/2 (Grey Dawning, 2024), 15/2 (Stage Star, 2023), 6/5 (Dave Olinger, 2022), 9/1 (Chantry House, 2021), 4/1 (Samcro, 2020), 3/1 (Defi Du Seuil, 2019), 4/1 (Shattered Love, 2018), 6/4 (Yorkhill, 2017), 4/1 (Black Hercules, 2016).
Pertemps Network Final (14:40)
Following on from this is the Pertemps Network Final, which is the only staying handicap hurdle at the festival. Looking at the odds for winners when entering the race over the last ten years, victors are priced at 14.1/1 on average, suggesting the race slightly favours horses that sit in the mid-range.
Regarding the win rate for favourites, they have only managed to win one of the last ten races, indicating the high level of competition on display.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 1 (2019)
The odds of the last ten winners: 25/1 (Doddiethegreat, 2025), 25/1 (Monmiral, 2024), 9/1 (Good Time Jonny, 2023), 25/1 (Third Wind, 2022), 12/1 (Mrs Milner, 2021), 10/1 (Sire Du Berlais, 2020), 4/1 (Sire Du Berlais, 2019), 6/1 (Delta Work, 2018), 11/1 (Presenting Percy, 2017), 14/1 (Mall Dini, 2016).
Ryanair Chase (15:20)
Next up on day three is the first of two main events and an ideal race for horses that are strong middle-distance chasers: the Ryanair Steeple Chase. The average starting odds for the previous ten winners are 3.73/1 – supporting the chances of horses that are in the upper end of the market.
Favourites have seen reasonable returns in the last ten years with a 50 per cent success rate. Though, as the last decade has also seen unfavoured horses have an equal amount of wins, backing the favourite could be considered as somewhat of a risk.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 5 (2025, 2022, 2021, 2017, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 6/4 (Fact To File, 2025), 17/2 (Protektorat, 2024), 13/2 (Envoi Allen, 2023), 4/7 (Allaho, 2022), 3/1 (Allaho, 2021), 2/1 (Min, 2020), 9/2 (Frodon, 2019), 8/1 (Balko Des Flos, 2018), 7/4 (Un De Sceaux, 2017), 1/1 (Vautour, 2016).
Stayers’ Hurdle (16:00)
One of the two main viewings of day three, the Stayers’ Hurdle, is the season’s leading event for staying hurdlers. The race has average entering odds for the last ten winners of 13.26/1 – though this is influenced by Sire Du Berlais and Lisnagar Oscar winning despite their unfavourable odds.
Win rates for favourites in the previous ten years is 30 per cent, suggesting that you could find value in betting on underdog horses.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 3 (2024, 2019, 2016)
The odds of the last ten winners: 8/1 (Bob Olinger, 2025), 5/4 (Teahupoo, 2024), 33/1 (Sire Du Berlais, 2023), 4/1 (Flooring Porter, 2022), 12/1 (Flooring Porter, 2021), 50/1 (Lisnagar Oscar, 2020), 11/8 (Paisley Park, 2019), 12/1 (Penhill, 2018), 10/1 (Nichols Canyon, 2017), 1/1 (Thistlecrack, 2016).
The Plate (16:40)
Coming up next is the TrustATrader Plate, which is one of the most competitive handicap chases of the year. Over the previous decade, the race has the average odds for winners when starting the race sitting at 9.81/1
The last ten iterations has seen favourites win 40 per cent of the time, showing a pretty even split between them and the rest of the competing herd; and potential for success when backing outsiders.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 4 (2025, 2021, 2020, 2018)
The odds of the last ten winners: 3/1 (Jagwar, 2025), 8/1 (Shakem Up’arry, 2024), 20/1 (Seddon, 2023), 22/1 (Coole Cody, 2022), 9/4 (The Shunter, 2021), 10/3 (Simply The Betts, 2020), 9/2 (Siruh Du Lac, 2019), 5/1 (The Storyteller, 2018), 14/1 (Road to Respect, 2017), 16/1 (Empire of Dirt, 2016).
Kim Muir Chase (17:20)
To round out the day is a handicap chase for amateur riders, the Kim Muir Chase. The last ten winners of the race have entered with average odds of 13.41/1 – although, this is raised by two longshots that pulled through in the form of Chambard (2022) and Domesday Book (2017).
Wins for the favourites have been scarce in the last decade with only 10 per cent being won by the bookies’ choice, supporting its reputation as one of the most competitive handicap chases at Cheltenham Festival.
How many times the favourite has won since 2016: 1 (2024)
The odds of the last ten winners: 12/1 (Daily Present, 2025), 13/8 (Inothewayurthinkin, 2024), 10/1 (Angels Dawn, 2023), 40/1 (Chambard, 2022), 3/1 (Mount Ida, 2021), 9/1 (Milan Native, 2020), 6/1 (Any Second Now, 2019), 8/1 (Missed Approach, 2018), 40/1 (Domesday Book, 2017), 9/2 (Cause of Causes, 2016).
Why is it important to consider Cheltenham day 3 trends?
Since we have now reviewed the major Cheltenham day 3 trends and stats to look out for, it’s important to address why you should keep them in mind when thinking of your upcoming betting strategies.
Stats like a horses or jockeys form and reputation can be helpful to show how they may perform next time out – especially if you identify trends that fit a horse who’s a potential outsider. Of course, it’s important to also acknowledge that they’re not guarantees of the future, just as a horse deemed as a favourite won’t always win in the race.
If you are interested in seeing some more tips about how you can prepare for Cheltenham Festival or particular races, head over to our Cheltenham blog to read more guides like this!
How to bet on the Cheltenham Festival
If you aren’t sure where to begin on your betting strategies, you can have a look at our Cheltenham Festival betting odds page, or go to the Play Store or the App Store to download our mobile app and experience live betting, real-time updates, and exclusive offers right in the palm of your hand!
