2026 NFL MVP Odds, Picks and Predictions: Joe Burrow offers value

Josh Allen leads Betway’s NFL MVP market for 2026, but health, team success and statistical growth could reshape the quarterback-heavy race.

Preseason games are done as NFL teams prep for their final roster cutdown before the regular season starts on Sept. 9.

Every quarterback at the top of the NFL MVP futures list has a plausible path to the award.

Health, individual statistics and greater team success all come into play. Finding the best MVP futures wager comes down to determining which player has the smallest, and more realistic gap, between his present situation and an MVP season. It’s not just putting money down on who you think is the most talented player.

NFL MVP Odds 2026

In NFL betting at Betway, the regular season MVP futures list is all quarterbacks:

The first non-quarterback on the Betway futures list is Detroit Lions’ running back Jahmyr Gibbs at +10000.

The obvious place to go is the betting favourite, Allen. Pundits call him the most pure talent at that position in the NFL, and he has won the award before.

He’s already proven he can produce elite numbers and lead the Bills into contention. And knock on wood, he’s managed to avoid serious injury, unlike Mahomes and Burrow.

The Bills made a lot of off-season changes, including bringing in a new head coach, Joe Brady, introducing a new defensive scheme, and adding a new primary wide receiver for Allen in DJ Moore. But the pressure is on in Buffalo – their Super Bowl window is closing.

Allen faces a repeat challenge, and his +550 price leaves little room for regression. He has to stay healthy, again keep Buffalo among the AFC’s best teams, and once again separate himself from other quarterbacks capable of producing comparable numbers.

Jackson has already won the award twice. He doesn’t need a breakthrough; he’s already established himself at an elite level, but he will need to be sufficiently better than QBs like Allen and Mahomes for voters to give him a third.

Burrow is interesting at +850. He’s the one guy out of all of them that will be relying on team success to have a shot at the MVP. Quarterbacks on teams limping into a wild-card berth rarely win MVP. If Burrow can stay healthy and the Bengals return to the top of the AFC, he’ll be among the leading contenders.

Mahomes’ +1000 number is intriguing, too. No one can question his ability, reputation, or long winning record. Remember, though, MVP votes are cast before the postseason.

He’s coming off a serious knee injury and will somehow need the level of explosive passing numbers he’s shown in the past to win another award.

With Maye at +1000, you’re backing the opposite of Mahomes. You are projecting a continued rapid ascent. There isn’t an established MVP resume, unlike Allen, Jackson or Mahomes. Has Maye moved from promising young quarterback to consistent, credible MVP candidate? Patriots’ fans will tell you he already has. And he was in the conversation last year, narrowly losing to Stafford. Bettors have to weigh it differently.

Oddsmakers look at Stafford at +1100 because they fear injury. Can he stay healthy and deliver a complete season of elite production?

Herbert has long possessed MVP talent but hasn’t been able to piece together the necessary combination of volume, efficiency, and team success. Williams’ upside is considerable, but he requires the largest development leap among the leading candidates. The Bears will have to emerge as a legitimate NFC contender for him to be in the conversation by season’s end.

Prescott needs a revival with the Cowboys.

NFL MVP Prediction 2026

My money is on Burrow at +850. That’s the best balance of price and plausibility. The raw talent is there. He just needs to stay on the field, and the Bengals as a team (+2000 to win the Super Bowl at Betway) need to win enough games.