In our exclusive interview, the NFL Draft guru discusses his favourite prospects, the teams to watch in round one and the best fits for players like Jeremiyah Love and Rueben Bain.
Outside of Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson, which later round quarterbacks do you think have the most upside?
I’ll give you three names who all have different strengths and weaknesses, who could be the next guy.
Garrett Nussmeier from LSU. His dad is an NFL and college coach. He grew up that way, and you can see it when he plays. He understands the game, he played an awful lot of football in college, and was hurt a lot of this past year, and with Brian Kelly leaving the programme, there was a lot going on there. I could tell you from the tape I’ve seen the last two years, he has borderline starting traits in the NFL. And his football IQ probably pushes him over the top. I think he’s a potential starting NFL quarterback.
Drew Allar from Penn State has almost overwhelming physical traits from a pure thrower’s perspective. Big, strong, can make every throw. However, an alarming lack of development over his years as a starting quarterback at Penn State. I expected to see a much better player by last year, didn’t see it. A lot of plays where you go, “just what happened there?” But there’s a lot of talent there, and somebody’s going to want to develop that talent. I think he’s going to be a day two pick. These guys always get pushed up.
Who knows if it’s all on the kid? I don’t know how he was coached. I’d like to have a look at him in a camp and give him a real shot to try to develop, a lot like the Packers have done with their quarterbacks. Let them sit for two or three years and see where they go.
And then Carson Beck. Three years ago when he was at Georgia, I remember at the end of my report I said that if this kid develops to another level next year, he’s the first pick in the draft. So I loved his traits, I loved the ball location, arm strength, athletic ability, size, all of it. And he regressed the next year to the point where both Georgia and Carson Beck said they’re better off without each other.
He goes to Miami and, to his credit, plays in a championship game. But you look at the positivity of Mendoza’s nervous system, and I look at Carson Beck the opposite way. The way I ended my report this year on him after a bunch of stuff was basically ‘buyer beware’. In key situations, I can’t trust this kid.
So after Mendoza and Simpson, those are the three guys I find intriguing. I think the safest one is Nussmeier. I’m really intrigued with trying to work with Allar as a backup for two or three years. And Carson Beck has a lot of traits and ability, but not for me.
Who’s a team who could be looking for a quarterback in that range in the draft, which may surprise people?
I’m a big fan of the Los Angeles Rams and Les Snead, and Matthew Stafford is effectively on a year-to-year contract now. He had an amazing year last year, especially when you consider in August, he had some kind of back issue and wasn’t even practicing.
I think their roster is ready to win another Super Bowl. I think Les has to be thinking, what’s the future at quarterback? You’ve got Stafford for one year, two years, three years max, but what’s the future? So I think the Rams are certainly a team.
I think Cleveland has got three quarterbacks, which really means they have none. They’re a team that has got to figure some stuff out, and they’ve got two first-round picks.
Pittsburgh’s got to figure some stuff out, badly. And we all know about the Jets and Arizona.
There are some teams that have solved all of what they perceive to be a quarterback issue, and and I think there are other teams out there going, “man, we’re trying to win now, but we better be careful going forward.”
Who is the most interesting team to watch in the first round of the draft?
I just spoke about the Rams, and I think Les Snead is under the radar as one of the top GMs. When I was a GM and when I talked to other GMs, the goal is sustained excellence, but out of 32 teams only six or seven have achieved that in the last 10 years, and the Rams are one of them. They won a Super Bowl by trading away all their draft picks, and then to their credit, they rebuilt that team when they had to get rid of a lot of salary cap. They hit big on a high percentage of their picks, they’ve rebuilt this team and they’re ready to win another Super Bowl.
Why am I so intrigued by them this year? They had two first-round picks, and that’s too many first-round picks for Les, so he sent No. 29 to Kansas City for Trent McDuffie. He’s 26 years old, it’s going to cost them a lot of money, but you’re going to just plug and play an All-Pro corner immediately at your biggest position of need. And then a couple days later, Les turned around and signed Jalen Watson from Kansas City in free agency. So he took his biggest need in free agency and got rid of it in about a 48-hour period.
That sets him up in the draft now to go after his offense and support his quarterback. They’ve got the 13th pick and there’s been a lot of conversation about wideouts there. Had they gotten AJ Brown, I think they would have moved Davante Adams in another trade to get rid of his salary to make it work, but now we already know they want a wideout.
I think at 13, you’re looking at one of two offensive positions to support Stafford. I’m a huge Makai Lemon guy, and if you put him with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, Sean McFay would have a field day. I love that fit for the coaching staff and for the kid, but if Lemon’s not there, it doesn’t mean they won’t take someone like Jordan Tyson.
And the other potential one is offensive tackle. Rob Havenstein retired, and they’ve got a fifth-round pick pencilled in to play there. I’m a huge fan of Monroe Freeling, the tackle from Georgia. He’s a one-year starter, athletically he’s more of a left tackle, but he could slide in at right, learn how to play and make his way to left tackle eventually.
So I think if they’re going to support the quarterback at 13, I can’t wait to see what Les does.
Jeremiyah Love is considered by many to be the best player in the draft. Where’s the ideal fit for him?
It’s a good question, and I think you have to define it with some boundaries because he’s not going to go beyond the top 10.
I think Tennessee at No. 4 and the Giants at No. 5 are intriguing for him.
I’m a John Harbaugh fan, and John knows how to run the football and how to support a running back. Love and Skattebo are a really intriguing mix and match. I wouldn’t want to wear out Love in year one. I would love to pair him with somebody of quality, where you could have a two-back system and ideally find him somewhere around 15 to 18 touches a game. Let him get immersed. I think he’d be a great fit there and would really help with the young quarterback, Jaxson Dart.
I don’t even know if he gets to five though. At four, I think Tennessee’s intriguing also. You’ve got Cam Ward, and Brian Daboll also knows how to run the football. They’ve got another situation there that I like. Robert Saleh is really solid. Even though he’s a defensive guy, the system he comes out of in San Francisco is about running the ball, wide zone, play action. I think Love fits that to a tee, and I love either of those situations for him.
I don’t love Arizona. I just don’t know enough about how good they’re going to be. They’re probably going to need to draft a tackle at No. 3, the quarterback situation scares me and I don’t want to see the kid get beat up in year one. So picks four and five, I think, look kind of cool for him.
You liked Jalon Walker a lot last year and he proved to be a great pick for the Falcons. Who’s a player this year who you’re higher on than most?
It’s funny because when you watch a lot of tape, you might love a kid and then all of a sudden people start to figure it out, and they love them too. I’ve got three or four kids I want to share with you that I think are intriguing for different reasons.
One is Makai Lemon. He’s now a top-15 pick, but I would stand on the table for him. His football temperament reminds me of Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Cooper Kupp.
He wants the ball, he attacks the ball, he blocks. When you put Cooper Kupp on, he digs linebackers and safeties out of the C-gap, which hardly any wideouts do. This kid will do it. He runs precise routes. He knows how to separate. He attacks the football. In the NFL there’s now a blurring of responsibility for wideouts. Now you look at the Rams, and every team in the league basically, and it’s all motions, stacks and bunches. This kid is perfect for all of that.
I think Monroe Freeling from Georgia is going to ultimately be the best tackle to come out of this draft.
Kadyn Proctor from Alabama has more upside than any tackle in the draft. He’s a monster, he’s a dancing bear, but he’s not in condition and there’s too many glaring technical deficiencies. If the kid gets his stuff together with a good O-line coach, he can be outstanding.
There’s a defensive end at Texas Tech that’s not David Bailey, it’s Romello Height. I think he’s going to go in the third round. He’s just as explosive as David Bailey. His first three steps are legit, the only difference is he’s 12 pounds lighter, not as powerful or strong. But somebody’s going to draft him and he’s going to be a sub-package guy immediately.
And then a day-three guy who I like is Harold Perkins from LSU. Love him. He’s an undersized off-the-ball linebacker. The best thing he does is rush the quarterback, and somebody’s going to get a steal there.
So there’s four or five guys that I would jump on the table for different reasons.
You talked about Bill Polian and not building around exceptions. How much does Rueben Bain’s arm length matter?
It’s a really good question. His arm length is, I think, the fourth shortest since 1999 for an edge defender, which is kind of crazy. If you have short arms, you’re starting with a deficiency. If you’re an edge guy and you’re playing against a tackle with 35-inch arms, and he’s just punching you, keeping you away, you’ve got no chance to get into his chest and get a hold and win with hand violence. You have to have an elite trait to offset that, and I think his elite trait is violent hands and power.
Look at Brandon Graham from the Eagles. He’s been in the league for 14 years or whatever, first-round pick, violent hands and power. When I first watched this kid play, he reminded me of Jared Verse. He’s a power-based guy, he’s got just enough twitch and speed to worry you on the outside, but he’s going to win with speed to power and inside power moves. That’s who he’s going to be.
I think he can offset the arms. The second issue, though, is the kid’s like 265 to 268 pounds, and his lower body makes you think he’s going to grow to 280. He is a big, big human being. And if he continues to grow, which is just natural, is he a 3-technique now as opposed to an edge guy? Is he a 5-technique in a 3-4 defense? What is he?
the The bottom line is if you’re going to take him in the top 10, you’ve got to know in your head he’s going to be a 10 to 12 sack guy every year. I think the combination of him on the outside and in sub-packages kicking him inside makes him very valuable.
Where do you think is a good fit for Bain?
I think Washington and New Orleans at No. 7 and No. 8 are both really intriguing. Both need edge rushers.
Washington was active in free agency on the edge, but I think the kid would fit real well with both those programmes.
I like him in that range, and I think he makes sense there. I think Kansas City at 9 will probably go offense, so I don’t see it there. But I like Washington and New Orleans, and don’t count out Cincinnati at 10.
What direction do you think the Chiefs could go in now that they have a rare opportunity to pick in the top 10?
The Chiefs have two first-round picks, so at 29, I think they’ve got to go back and get a corner to replace the corners they lost in free agency and a trade. Colton Hood, Avieon Terrell, those two guys make a lot of sense.
I think No. 9 is intriguing. You’ve got to support your all-world quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, with either talent on the outside or a better offensive line.
They got a right tackle in free agency, Jaylon Moore. He’s okay, but I’d like to upgrade that if you could. I think Francis Mauigoa from Miami probably is gone, but Spencer Fano might be perfect for them. Fano could play tackle, he can kick inside to guard if necessary.
And I also think you have to look at wideout. Xavier Worthy was a first-round pick, Rasheed Rice was a second, and for a lot of different reasons, there’s been no consistency or reliability with both of them. Rasheed Rice has had injuries and off-the-field troubles, Worthy’s a great vertical guy, I get it, but has disappeared for games at a time.
I think you also have to be looking at wideout there, and at No. 9, I think Carnell Tate is probably gone but you could go Makai Lemon or Jordyn Tyson.
How do you think Tate stacks up as a prospect compared to the great Ohio State receivers of recent years?
What a lot of people don’t realise about the Ohio State wideouts for the last few years is they had a built-in advantage because of Brian Hartline, who just who took the South Florida head coaching job this year. You combine a bunch of four-star and five-star kids coming out of high school with one of the two or three best wideout coaches I’ve seen. I’ve been on the field watching him teach and coach – he demands excellence, but they give it to him because they know he can help them get better.
I remember going in there one year, and I was asking, “Who’s No. 7? Who’s No. 11? Who are these guys? They’re not even on my list.” And he just started laughing and said, “Mike, you’re going to come back to see me next year on that kid and the following year on that kid.” So it became a little bit of a mini factory.
The guy who got all the attention was Marvin Harrison Jr., and he hasn’t had quite the production that people would think with the fourth overall pick. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went 20th overall in 2023, and we all know where he’s gone. He was a guy that could run routes, fought for the football in the air and said, “It’s mine, it’s not yours.”
Garrett Wilson and Olave came out in the same year and had very similar traits in being sudden, quick, knowing how to separate and how to read zones – all the things from Hartline that you have to learn. So these guys hit the ground running better than other receivers.
Now you’ve got Carnell Tate, and he’s going to be another top-10 pick. I don’t think he’s quite as sudden or quick as those other guys, he’s a little bit longer and leaner, but he knows how to separate, and fights for the football.
I think he’s a little bit behind the other guys. He just kind of popped this year. I think his best football is ahead of him, and I think in year two, year three, you’re going to see him start to really separate. But I don’t think he’s ready to compete on day one like Smith-Njigba, Wilson and Olave.
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