Rams take over as Super Bowl favourites, while the Chiefs, Seahawks and Jaguars offer intriguing futures value after Week 4
The Buffalo Bills are drifting in Betway Super Bowl futures after their 29-26 loss Sunday to the New England Patriots on home turf.
That game has fueled questions about whether the Bills are overrated as Super Bowl favourites, with their defence emerging as a legitimate concern.
The Bills are 3-1, yes, but they were in a tight win against the L.A. Chargers, who are terrible this year (0-4), and allowed 31 points in their win against the Lions, so maybe that wasn’t as impressive as people thought. They struggled to beat the Texans in Week 1. The Texans are also 0-4 and don’t have the quality defence people had projected.
Over-reaction? Possibly. The Bills could head to L.A. on Monday to play the Rams and flip the script again.
In NFL betting at Betway, the L.A. Rams are Super Bowl favourites at +600, followed by the Bills at +700, the Baltimore Ravens at +900, the San Francisco 49ers at +900, the Kansas City Chiefs at +900, the Seattle Seahawks at +1000, the Jacksonville Jaguars at +1600, and the Chicago Bears at +1800.
The Bills were +650 going into the weekend.
Let’s look at the major market movers after Week 4.
L.A. Rams (+600): Buy/Hold
The Rams were +700 entering Week 4, but their 24-20 comeback win over the Philadelphia Eagles has restored confidence after their Week 3 loss to Denver. They deserve to be among the favorites, but that’s a fairly short price.
Buffalo Bills (+700): Caution
The Bills entered Week 4 as the betting favourite at +650, but that home loss has raised red flags. They could just as well be 2-2, even 1-3. Right now, you’d have to say the Kansas City Chiefs are the top team in the AFC, followed by the Bills, with Jacksonville the next level down. Bettors are asking whether +700 adequately prices the Bills’ flaws exposed in the New England game.
Kansas City Chiefs (+900): Buy
The Chiefs are back to finding ways to win games. This is a great price if you want to sprinkle some money on Super Bowl futures, enough value to make a futures bet on them now. The Chiefs were +1600 during the preseason.
Plus, the Chiefs have something special brewing in Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, signed as a free agent. In four games, Walker is already at 537 yards on 87 carries for a 6.2-yard average and four touchdowns.
Seattle Seahawks (+1000): Buy
The defending Super Bowl champions just defeated the Chargers 30-23, to move to 3-1.
Notably, scanning Betway for NFL betting picks, the Seahawks are 2.5-point favourites at home against the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
San Francisco 49ers (+900): Buy/Hold
The 49ers have been led by a legitimate MVP candidate in quarterback Brock Purdy. Odds have shortened dramatically from their opening range – around +1900. The “hold” part comes down to injuries, including a calf injury to Nick Bosa and Kyle Juszczyk’s knee problems, with several defensive players sidelined.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1600): Buy
QB Trevor Lawrence is now in the MVP conversation. The Jags were +2100 in the preseason, just off an impressive 22-17 road win over the Bengals and allowed only 53 points through four games. Other books have them down to +1400. A serious riser.
Baltimore Ravens (+900): Caution
Look, the Ravens are 3-1, and QB Lamar Jackson looked good before leaving Sunday’s 24-18 win over Tennessee – 15-of-20 for 222 yards, two TDs and no turnovers. They have a beast at running back in Derrick Henry. But Jackson’s ankle situation has me backing away from them at +900.
Week 5 availability is in doubt. And Jackson’s replacement in the Titans game, Tyler Huntley, didn’t score in the second half.
Chicago Bears (+1800): Caution
Chicago has one of the best coaches in the NFL, Ben Johnson, and has become a really intriguing long-shot Super Bowl bet. Even with QB Caleb Williams out with a hamstring injury, they beat the Eagles and the Jets by a combined 31 points.
You’re not getting the +2200 bargain from a few weeks back. The Bears are an interesting second-tier contender.
