The horse racing broadcaster offers up his best bets for Saturday at Ayr and Newbury, including an each-way bet at a big price in the feature race of the day.
A really high-quality renewal of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend is the finale to ITV3’s nine-race coverage of racing from Ayr and Newbury this weekend.
It is very rare for a big-field handicap to feature three horses rated 108-plus and for the bottom weight to scrape in off a mark as high as 95, which shows the strength of the race. My initial eye was drawn to Binhareer, who had looked unlucky not to finish closer when favourite for the Silver Cup last year, but his subsequent efforts put him significantly higher in the weights. Instead, it could be worth chancing a real outsider in HAMMER THE HAMMER 40/1 (15:40 Ayr), who was fifth in the race last year. The fact he is a big price gives the clue that he has been well below par so far this season, but the race last year was run on the softest ground he had encountered before or since, and he lines up off an 8lb lower mark. He is also reunited with Tom Eaves for the first time this season, having partnered him to all his previous victories, while trainer Kevin Ryan (who also saddles Volterra and Rock On Thunder) has an excellent record in the race (5/63, A/E 2.09). He will be committed to racing on the stands’ side from his high draw, so take on board any clues from the Bronze and Silver Cups as to the likelihood of that proving the place to be.
The fact the Gold Cup has attracted such a strong field means that last year’s runner-up DESERT FALCON 8/1 (14:30 Ayr) can only make the line-up for the Silver Cup this time around. He has not been beaten far in two competitive races at Ayr and Doncaster recently, and he once again has the soft ground that he encountered here last season. The weight spread is quite narrow, with just 8lb across the entire field, so he is not giving lumps of lead away and can again give a bold showing in Scotland. Connections are probably ruing the fact he did not make the main race, but this could prove some compensation.
Elsewhere on the Ayr card, ICE MAX 11/4 (13:55 Ayr) will appreciate the cut in the ground after being absent since a particularly unlucky passage on his most recent start at Epsom in June. He is best early and late in the season because of his marked preference for a soft surface, which connections have had to be very patient for this season. The main question is probably whether he can see out 10f after an absence, but he has a touch of class and the small field, with only Chester specialist Grey Cuban likely to force the pace, means he has a decent chance of seeing it out.
At Newbury, STARLUST 5/2 (13:02 Newbury) looks worth siding with, having dropped in class in the opener. He comes here at the top of his game after good runs in both the Flying Five at the Curragh and the Nunthorpe at York, so the drop from Group 1 to Group 3 company looks a significant advantage. He was behind Redorange at York earlier in the season and his losing run is becoming quite a long one, but this does look a good opportunity to put that to bed.
The feature juvenile race at Newbury is the Mill Reef, where the talented Arapaho Gold will be bidding to land a big win for the North and Michael Dods. He has stacks of ability but has not always seemed quite sure how best to channel it and, as a betting proposition at the prices, is best passed over. In an era where top juveniles tend to be the domain of only a few stables, a win here would be both refreshing and would also give the yard a genuine shot at a Group race in next year’s Commonwealth Cup.
Personally, the juvenile I am most looking forward to seeing at Newbury is KICKING BEAR 9/4 (15:20 Newbury), who really caught my eye when finishing runner-up on his debut at the track last month. Ed Walker’s juveniles usually need their first experience and, even if he takes only a small step forward, it will take a good one to lower his colours. The third-placed horse let the form down at Yarmouth in the week, but it was the manner in which Kicking Bear travelled through the race, and the fact he looked to have a fair bit of running left in him at the line, that marked his run down as one of the most promising debuts I have seen from a juvenile this season.
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