UFC Fight Night 111 tips: Best bets as Holm and Correia meet in Singapore
The former women's bantamweight champion's reach advantage should prove telling on Saturday night...
Holly Holm v Bethe Correia
No fighter on this card needs a win more than Holm.
The former champion has lost her last three fights, and it’s hard to imagine her getting back into the title picture if she suffers her fourth defeat this weekend.
Fortunately for her, Correia is also on a poor run of results.
The Brazilian has lost two and drawn one of her last four fights, with a decision win over Jessica Eye her only victory since 2014.
She relies heavily upon her powerful striking, and that plays right to the strengths of Holm, a former world champion boxer.
The American – who was very, very close to beating Germaine de Randamie in her last fight – should use her five-inch reach advantage to keep Correia at bay.
Considering seven of Holm’s 10 wins have come by knockout, it’s likely she ends this one inside the distance.
Best bet: Holm to win by KO, TKO or DQ at
Andrei Arlovski v Marcin Tybura
Arlovski’s UFC career will probably be over if he loses this fight.
The Belarusian has been beaten four times in a row, all inside the distance.
He’s been knocked out three times since January 2016, and his last stoppage victory came over two years ago.
Tybura, meanwhile, is a quickly improving heavyweight and one of the better strikers in the division.
He has won his last two fights, and ended the first of those against Viktor Pesta with a vicious head kick in the second round.
The Pole should put away Arlovski – who looks like a finished fighter at this point – and move into the top 10 of the divisional rankings for the first time.
Best bet: Tybura to win by KO, TKO or DQ at
Don Hyun Kim v Colby Covington
This is a real step up for Covington – an impressive welterweight prospect who has only been beaten once in his 12-fight professional career.
The American is an excellent wrestler and grappler with the ability to knock his opponents out, but it’s slightly surprising that he’s such a clear favourite here given the standard of the fighters he’s faced to date.
Kim – now 35 – is the much more experienced man, and he’s coming off a three-fight winning streak.
The South Korean has only lost three times in his 27-fight career, and only to the very best welterweights in the UFC.
‘Stun Gun’ is not only a big puncher but also a very technical stand-up fighter, and he shouldn’t have too much of a problem dealing with Covington’s takedowns.
At this price, it’s well worth backing him to cause the upset.
Best bet: Kim to win at
Tarec Saffediene v Rafael dos Anjos
Former lightweight champion dos Anjos is making the move up to welterweight for the first time, and should start life in a new division with a win.
The Brazilian was beaten by Eddie Alvarez and Tony Ferguson in his last two fights, but both of those opponents are vastly superior fighters to Saffiedine.
The Belgian is also coming off successive defeats to Dong Hyun Kim and Rick Story, and, in truth, he’s a level below the UFC’s elite 170-pounders.
He lacks the knockout power to trouble dos Anjos, and the former champion’s superior wrestling should prove the key to victory.
Given that 13 of Saffiedine’s last 15 fights have gone the distance, though, a stoppage looks highly unlikely.
Best bet: Dos Anjos to win by decision at