UFC tips: Best bets for Cormier v Lewis at UFC 230
Jack Green expects a comfortable win for the two-weight champion in his UFC betting tips for Saturday night.
Daniel Cormier v Derrick Lewis
Saturday night’s main event was only announced on October 9, and the short turnaround from Lewis’ last fight is bad news for the challenger.
Lewis beat Alexander Volkov by last-ditch knockout just three days before the announcement at UFC 229, and the 33-year-old – whose conditioning is a problem even with a full camp – just hasn’t had enough time to prepare for an opponent like Cormier.
The two-weight champion is yet to lose to anyone not named Jon Jones, and he looked fantastic in his return to heavyweight in July, when he knocked out Stipe Miocic in the first round to claim his second belt.
Cormier’s wrestling is by far his greatest strength, but he’s also an elite striker who can go five rounds comfortably.
Lewis has the power to take anyone out with one shot, but Cormier is smart enough to avoid the bombs and secure a stoppage.
Chris Weidman v Ronaldo Souza
Cardio should be key in this evenly-matched middleweight bout.
Souza has been one of the division’s top contenders for a long time, with seven wins in his 10-fight UFC career to date, but he has struggled at times to get through tough three-rounders and is arguably past his best at 38.
Weidman, meanwhile, is one of the best conditioned middleweights in the UFC.
The All-American wrestler had lost three fights in a row before his last fight in July 2017, when he looked excellent in a submission victory over Kelvin Gastelum.
He’s one of the few fighters whose grappling matches up with Souza’s, and Weidman also has a technical advantage on the feet.
‘Jacare’ is a hugely powerful striker, so he’ll be dangerous early on, but Weidman has the skills to tire the Brazilian out and take control late on.
David Branch v Jared Cannonier
Branch bounced back from a defeat to Luke Rockhold in September of last year by knocking out Thiago Santos in April, and the American has now won 12 of his last 13 fights in the World Series of Fighting and UFC.
He could move into the top five in the middleweight division by beating Cannonier, who has lost back-to-back bouts against Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes.
Cannonier is a big, strong fighter who has competed at light heavyweight and heavyweight in the past, but he’s nowhere near as versatile as Branch.
The 37-year-old has six career knockouts to go with his seven submission wins, and he should triumph inside the distance against a fighter who was stopped in his last bout.
Israel Adesanya v Derek Brunson
Adesanya is a potential star of the middleweight division with an unbeaten professional record over 14 fights, including 12 knockouts.
At 6ft 4in, the Nigerian is a nightmare opponent for most of the fighters in the division, as he is an expert at using his length with unorthodox striking.
He opens the main card on Saturday against Brunson – a great wrestler with a big right hand who was knocked out by Jacare in his last fight back in January.
Brunson has now lost three of his last five fights – one of which was admittedly a contentious decision against Anderson Silva – and he just doesn’t seem to have the all-around game to compete with the best in the division.
Adesanya is on his way to joining the elite, and this is a great chance for him to beat a respected opponent and perhaps even move in line for a title shot.
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