Autumn Internationals: Best bets for final round of fixtures
We find the value in all the Home Nations' matches, and reveal our very own 10/1 #BetYourWay selection for England v Samoa.
ENGLAND v SAMOA (Saturday, 15:00)
England to score over 50.5 points
England put 58 points on Fiji last autumn in their only other game against a Tier 2 nation under Eddie Jones.
He will demand a similar level of performance against even weaker opposition in order to end the year on a high.
England haven’t had a player sin-binned in eight matches, while Samoa’s yellow card against Romania last week was their first in six.
They didn’t lose their discipline even when being thrashed by New Zealand and France over the last year, and will know they need all their players on the pitch to keep the scoreline respectable.
Sam Simmonds to score a try
Simmonds is the top-scoring forward in the Premiership this season, with five tries to his name.
So, on his first start for his country, there’s plenty of value in backing him to touch down in a game England are likely to dominate.
SCOTLAND v AUSTRALIA (Saturday, 14:30)
Match to be won by 1-6 points
Scotland’s games against Samoa and New Zealand were both nail-biters.
With all six of their most recent meetings with Australia also being decided by six points or fewer, expect another thriller on Saturday.
Huw Jones to score a try
The Scottish centre has scored a try in both of Scotland’s games so far this autumn.
He also bagged a brace against the Wallabies at Murrayfield 12 months ago, so looks a great bet to add to that tally.
WALES v NEW ZEALAND (Saturday, 17:15)
Over 60.5 total points
All three Tests between these two last summer saw at least 50 points scored.
With Wales developing a more expansive game in the time since, it’s worth backing that average to be bumped up a little here.
Waisake Naholo to score a try
Despite not scoring last week, Naholo still has four tries in his last four games.
He also got three in two starts against Wales last summer, so looks a prime candidate to touch down again.
IRELAND v ARGENTINA (17:30)
Ireland to win by 21-30 points
Argentina lost all six of their Rugby Championship games by between 17 and 26 points.
Having never won in Dublin and missing their fly-half through injury, they’re good value to be on the wrong end of a similar scoreline on Saturday.
Jacob Stockdale to score a try
Both tries Argentina conceded against England were scored in the wide channels.
Winger Stockdale – who has two tries in three starts for Ireland – looks the most obvious threat to the Pumas’ defence.