The horse racing broadcaster offers up four picks from Newmarket and one from Haydock, along with his weekly Jockes For Courses.
Don’t be fooled by any sunshine at Newmarket on Saturday as a torrent of rain this week will make conditions unusually attritional for a top-class card featuring two juvenile Group 1’s in the 6f Juddmonte Cheveley and Middle Parks.
These are meant to be a test of speed but this year things will be different and in many cases the runners will be encountering these conditions for the first time. While clues can be gained from the various pedigrees, it is important not to overplay those factors at the expense of overall form.
I am expecting an Irish domination of the juvenile contests starting with PUPPET MASTER 4/1 (13:50 Newmarket) in the Juddmonte Royal Lodge where the 1m trip will really put the emphasis on stamina. This is a big step up in class for Puppet Master but he has won on soft ground at Galway where he saw the trip out strongly as befits a son of Camelot. Both Luther and Wimbledon Hawkeye have doubts on the ground, and Puppet Master could outstay them on the way to a tilt at the Futurity at Doncaster.
Ger Lyons is without a winner in the UK since Mustajeer won the 2019 Ebor, a losing sequence of 23 as well as a Cheveley Park withdrawal of Siskin who got upset in the stalls that same year. BABOUCHE 7/4 (14:25 Newmarket) can right that wrong back against her own sex, having beaten the boys in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. That looks a key line of form for today as it also features Whistlejacket who went on to win the Morny in France. Babouche showed a good attitude when winning the Anglesey the time before and looks a top-class filly. Her clash with Lake Victoria makes this the race of the day.
WHISTLEJACKET 4/5 (15:00 Newmarket) will be in the limelight himself in the Middle Park where he can put his experience to good use. He got going early in the season when his wins included a Listed race on soft, and his quite bruising style will make it tough for the others to progress past him here. He has held his form well, winning the Morny last time out, and sets a stiff benchmark for his rivals here.
The big handicap of the day is the Cambridgeshire, where LIBERTY LANE 11/1 (15:40 Newmarket) can make a bold bid under top weight back in trip at what looks an ideal 9f. Carrying 9-12 to victory in such conditions will not be easy, but he travels well and is drawn close to the far rail, which I think may prove to be a good spot. The stalls have been positioned in the centre this week, and the preference on Thursday was to head for the stands side. If that proves to be the same on Friday (writing this before racing), then the far rail will be less poached and appeal more. At a big price, Lincoln winner Look Back Smiling, also drawn low, can outrun his odds, having had a pipe opener after a mid-season break at Ascot last time.
Away from Newmarket, conditions will be similarly testing at Haydock where SKIPPER 6/1 (13:30 Haydock) can make a successful handicap debut. His sire Calyx is amassing a good record with cut in the ground (18/65 on soft and heavy A/E 1.51), and his stable of Tom Clover is in good form.
JOCKEYS FOR COURSES
Riders in action at tracks where they historically perform well.
Haydock: Callum Shepherd (12/60, Actual/Expected Ratio 1.91). His rides include Calyxoh, another son of Calyx, in the 14:05.
Newmarket Rowley: William Buick (201/1011, A/E 1.18) including Geo in the 13:15, who he rode to victory on her nursery debut at Newbury last time out.
Ripon: Kieran O’Neill (11/30, A/E 2.08) has two rides including Faro De San Juan (14:45) who should appreciate the cut in the ground.
STABLE TRACKER
There are no stable tracker horses engaged today. See yesterday’s blog for the latest weekly update and a current up-to-date list of horses on the tracker.
COLUMN PERFORMANCE 2024
Stable Tracker: 26/27.96, A/E 0.93
Selections: 52/51.56, A/E 1.01
Jockeys For Courses: 50/50.80, A/E 0.98
Total: 128/130.32, A/E 0.98
Visit Betway’s horse racing betting page.
