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Lucida can make up for unlucky Royal Ascot run with Falmouth success

09 Jul | BY Betway | MIN READ TIME |
Lucida can make up for unlucky Royal Ascot run with Falmouth success

Group 1 favourite looks solid bet with older horses having questions to answer

Friday’s feature race is the Falmouth Stakes and this year’s renewal is a fascinating clash giving us a good idea of how the fillies from this season’s classic generation compare to the older horses.

The pick of the 3yos has to be Lucida at 11/4, a slightly unlucky third in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. That was a hot race and this straight mile should suit well. Her form has an extremely solid profile about it meaning she looks sure to run well.

Deciding between the older horses looks extremely difficult. Second favourite to Lucida is French raider Avenir Certain (4/1) who was tenderly ridden when a narrow second to Fintry last time out at Chantilly. Fintry (13/2) reopposes here but the market expects her to struggle against her old rival.

Last year Integral (4/1) was 1.25 lengths ahead of Fintry in the Sun Chariot Stakes but she was below par last time out at Ascot when beaten by Amazing Maria (10/1). Integral will need to bounce back here and if she does she will go very close.

Overall the picture with the older horses is very muddling and Lucida may well prove the best of the 3yo filly milers and she has her optimum conditions here so she has to be the selection at 11/4.

Spangled can prove better than a handicapper in time

The day’s opener at Newmarket is a class 2 handicap over 7f for 3yo fillies and those near the head of the market have a good record in the race. This race seems to revolve around 3 runners and they are Angel Vision, Wordcraft and Spangled.

The former won easily over course and distance last time out and her previous form behind Sahaafy entitled her to do that. That looked a decent race that she took apart last time out but she’s been hit with an 8lb rise so it’s just a case of whether or not the other two fancied runners have more in hand than she does now.

Wordcraft is unbeaten in 2 starts and is up 6lbs for winning what doesn’t look as strong a handicap as Angel Vision won last time. She was heavily backed though with connections clearly thinking she is better than this class and her breeding backs that up but it looks as though Angel Vision has achieved more in handicap company so far.

As for Spangled, she’s another last time out winner but she comes here straight from maiden company. The maiden she won wasn’t the best but the way she beat 2 horses rated in the low 70s means she could have easily come here with a rating in the low 90s yet she has been handed an opening mark of 87. She could be absolutely anything and if she improves again she is going to be extremely difficult to beat so she is just given the nod over Angel Vision.

Weight allowance set to give Marmion the edge

There is also some top racing at York on Friday and the 12f handicap at 3.25 looks an interesting puzzle.

The bottom 4 in the weights look those to concentrate on, they all won or finished 2nd last time out and they all have very progressive profiles. Curbyourenthusiasm may still prove better than his mark but he’s been raised 16lbs for winning two 6 runner Windsor handicaps so perhaps has the most to prove of the quartet.

First Sitting is likely to prove better than this mark and this step up in trip could bring about further improvement but his best form to date is on surfaces with plenty of cut so although a horse to follow, this may not be his race.

That leaves Pressure Point and Marmion and the former needs plenty of respect having won a fair course and distance handicap last time out.

He hasn’t been out of the first 2 in both starts here and horses who have previously run well at York always make plenty of appeal at the Knavesmire venue but Marmion too has course and distance form having finished 2nd in a very good renewal of the Queen Mother’s Cup last time.

It’s worth noting that he was held up whereas the 1st and 3rd both raced handily in that contest.

That was his first run on a softish surface so it would be no surprise to see him improve back on faster ground here and after just 4 starts there is surely plenty more left in the tank.

He’s also the only 3yo in the race meaning he gets a handy weight allowance from the rest of the field. This race was won by the only 3yo in the field last year and history may well repeat itself. 

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