Back to win (including starting strokes): Webb Simpson
The season-ending Tour Championship is an event with a difference, as players are handicapped based on the FedEx Cup standings.
Dustin Johnson is the current leader and will begin on -10, while Jon Rahm, who beat Johnson in a play-off at last week’s BMW Championship, starts on -8.
Both are in excellent form and look formidable at the top of the leaderboard, but this event hasn’t been kind to FedEx Cup leaders in recent years.
Last year, Justin Thomas started on -10 but finished T3, and no one has led prior to this event and gone on to win in the past four years.
It’s worth backing a chaser, then, and Simpson – who starts on -6 – looks the best bet.
The American is coming off back-to-back top-six finishes at the Wyndham Championship and The Northern Trust, and he took last week off to be fully rested for this event.
Simpson has three top-five finishes in his last six starts at East Lake and is a very steady performer under pressure.
The three players ahead of him in the standings – Johnson, Rahm and Justin Thomas – all have good but not great records at this venue, so Simpson looks capable of coming from behind to triumph.
Each-way shout: Xander Schauffele
Schauffele starts on -3 this week, but his excellent record at East Lake means he’s got a great chance of getting into contention.
The American was eighth in the FedEx Cup standings ahead of last year’s Tour Championship and climbed all the way into second, and he also won this event back when there was no handicap in 2017.
Schauffele has been remarkably consistent in 2020, with 13 top-25 finishes in 15 starts, including four top-15s in his last six.
The 26-year-old would be my bet to win this event outright if there was no handicap in place, and he’s currently to win with the starting strokes excluded.
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