Mythbusters: 4 double-chance football tips for Boxing Day
Adam Drury is backing Arsenal, Chelsea and two other favourites not to win in his Boxing Day football tips. If you fancy them all, back the 20/1 four-fold.
Saturday’s defeat at Portsmouth means Sunderland have only won two of their last seven league and cup matches, though that run comes as no surprise.
The Mackems only rank mid-table for xG according to experimental361, and 13th for shots on target per League One home game. Only eight teams, meanwhile, have conceded more shots on target on their own patch.
A key factor behind them outshooting those numbers this season has been prolific striker Josh Maja, who will likely be missing for this one.
Against a resurgent Bradford side - who have only lost away to Luton in their last 10 league and cup matches, and scored 15 goals in their last five - Jack Ross’ side could well drop more points.
Torino not to beat Empoli (17:00)
Torino are a short price to beat Empoli on Boxing Day considering they've only won one of their last four Serie A home matches.
The hosts have only scored more than once on home soil on two occasions this term, and rank sixth-bottom for xG and third-bottom for xPts at home.
Having scored 17 goals in their last nine matches, Empoli are bound to take the game to their defensive hosts.
Giuseppe Iachini’s side have secured entertaining draws at bottom-half sides Frosinone and SPAL recently, and rank eighth for xPts on the road, suggesting that a further improvement is imminent.
Arsenal not to beat Brighton (17:15)
Arsenal's dodgy run comes as no surprise after an initial burst in which they massively overshot their xG numbers.
The Gunners have dropped points in three of their last four Premier League matches on the road, including a 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace and 3-2 defeat at Southampton last time out.
They rank a mediocre 10th for xG on the road, suggesting goals won't be easy to come by, while a defensive injury crisis hardly helps their chances at the other end.
Brighton have only been beaten by the odd goal against Tottenham and Chelsea at the Amex Stadium this season, securing four wins (including one against Manchester United) and two draws from their other six.
Chelsea not to beat Watford (19:30)
Deserved defeats to the Premier League’s two best teams, Manchester City and Liverpool, aside, Watford have been strong at Vicarage Road this season.
The Hornets - who have won their last two matches - could easily have taken more from a 2-1 defeat to Manchester United in September, and have won five of their other six home matches, including victory over Tottenham.
In all, they have lost just five of 16 home matches under Javi Gracia, and won this fixture 4-1 last season.
Chelsea have already dropped points at West Ham and Wolves this season, and have only won by more than one goal on the road at Huddersfield and Southampton. After losing to Leicester on Saturday, they are vulnerable.
*Odds subject to change.
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