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Bournemouth not to beat Southampton

Bournemouth would have to create a bit of history to win this game.

The Cherries - who could be without key attackers Ryan Fraser and Josh King for this match - struggle to put together extended spells of good form. Not once since promotion have they won three consecutive Premier League home matches, while they haven’t won three consecutive league games overall since March 2016.

If that wasn’t enough, of the eight occasions since promotion in 2015 that they have won by three or more goals – as they did at Watford last time out – they have won the next match just twice, against Sunderland and Stoke sides that would go on to be relegated.

With all three of those records on the line on Saturday, I’m backing Southampton – who won at Crystal Palace last month, and, according to Understat, rank seventh for xG away from home – to take something from this south-coast derby.

Aston Villa not to beat Swansea

It is unrealistic to expect new manager Dean Smith to have much of an effect on Aston Villa’s poor form yet.

Villa have won just one of their last five home games – failing to beat bottom-four sides Reading and Preston in the process – and face a Swansea side that are quietly impressing under Graham Potter.

The Swans are combining an excellent defence with the kind of free-flowing football that defined their promotion to the Premier League in 2011 – with this goal against Ipswich last time out a superb example.

Swansea have only been beaten by Stoke away from home this term, conceding just three goals in six overall.

Bury not to beat Notts County

Notts County have finally turned the corner under Harry Kewell, winning three consecutive matches, so this is a big price for them to just avoid defeat at Bury.

Kewell’s side have conceded two goals in their last four games, including consecutive clean sheets away from home, while striker Jon Stead has scored in their last two victories.

Bury have failed to beat either Carlisle or Mansfield in their last two home matches, winning just one of their last five in League Two overall. Given that they are ninth, their rank of 16th for shots per League Two home match is unremarkable.

Barcelona not to beat Sevilla

The La Liga leaders take on title hopefuls on Saturday night, but the two teams are not the way round that you might expect.

Table-toppers Sevilla thrashed Real Madrid 3-0 on their way to first position, with the prolific form of Wissam Ben Yedder and Andre Silva helping them to score 14 goals in their last four matches, all of which have resulted in victory.

That should concern Barcelona, who are without a clean sheet in five matches and have conceded twice in two of their last three home league games.

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*Odds subject to change.

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