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Leicester not to beat Watford

Watford have gone three games without a win, but the underlying data suggests that they’re one of the best travellers in the Premier League.

Javi Gracia’s side rank sixth-best for xG for and third-best for xG against away from home, with two-goal victories at Burnley and Wolves their most eye-catching reward.

They have lost just two of their six away games overall, winning the xG battle in both, so can take at least a point from Leicester, who have only managed one win from their last six at the King Power Stadium.

Norwich not to beat Rotherham

Norwich’s tiny price to win this game reflects the position of these two sides in the table, but a closer look at Rotherham’s form suggests they are capable of frustrating the league leaders.

The Millers have won one and drawn six of their last seven matches, losing just one of their last 10. Given that two of those draws came against Middlesbrough and Sheffield United, both of whom are in the top six, they are clearly capable of matching superior opposition.

Norwich were held to a 0-0 draw by lowly Hull on Tuesday, while they have won five of their last six home matches by just one goal, suggesting that a slip-up may not be too far away.

Peterborough not to beat Bradford

Having successfully tipped Bradford to avoid defeat each of the last two weekends, including away to Peterborough in the league, this is a relatively simple choice.

The Bantams suffered a heavy defeat at in-form Luton on Tuesday, but that is not too much of a concern. They had avoided defeat in their four previous matches (bar the EFL Trophy), with the signings of Paul Caddis and Karl Henry providing a timely boost.

Posh were lucky to win their first-round tie at Bromley, coming from behind after the hosts were reduced to 10 men. Other than EFL Trophy games, they haven’t scored more than once in any of their last five home matches, and have conceded more shots on target against per League One home game than any other side.

Middlesbrough not to beat Aston Villa

Middlesbrough’s defensive record is good enough that they will remain in the Championship promotion race throughout the season, but they are hardly prolific winners.

Tony Pulis’ side have won just four of their last 12 league matches, and one of their last five at the Riverside, scoring only three goals.

That means that Aston Villa – who have scored 14 goals in their last four matches – could only need to hit the net once to get at least a point from this game.

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