Just The Tips: Our 10 best football tips for this weekend
We've compiled our writers’ best weekend football tips, including win/draw/win, BTTS and anytime goalscorers, into one bitesized betting preview.
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1. Watford to beat Newcastle (15:00)
Newcastle are second-bottom of the Premier League after 10 matches and have lost all five of their home games this season.
The Magpies have failed to score in four of their last five matches and have the second-worst xG (Understat) in the league, proving that they are creating few good chances.
Watford have won both of their last two matches to nil, so this looks like a great price for an away win.
2. Derby not to beat Birmingham (15:00)
Derby were unfortunate not to take Chelsea to penalties in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, but are worth getting against when they take on Birmingham on Saturday.
The Rams did not react well to a similarly-valiant performance at Old Trafford in the last round, going down 1-0 at Bolton that following Saturday and suffering a three-match winless run.
Any lethargy in this one will be punished by Birmingham, who are currently unbeaten in 11 matches. Garry Monk’s side have only lost twice all season – both by one-goal margins – and have won all of their last four.
Only six sides have had more shots on target per Championship away game than the Blues this term, while only Swansea and Middlesbrough have conceded fewer goals on the road. They could even be a good bet to win this match at .
3. Sunderland to beat Plymouth (15:00)
Plymouth won back-to-back matches last week, but those victories came against Scunthorpe and Gillingham, who are 17th and 18th respectively.
The Pilgrims had earned just seven points in their previous 14 games this season.
Sunderland eased to their fourth straight victory in League One and seventh game without defeat as they beat Southend 3-0 last weekend, moving to within three points of top spot.
4. Kevin van Veen (Northampton) to score v Crewe (15:00)
Van Veen is a player that I have been waiting for the right opportunity to tip to score for some time.
When fully motivated and confident, the Northampton forward is among the most natural finishers in League Two, as well as a proficient penalty-taker.
He has scored four goals in five home starts in the league this season and appears to have the trust of new manager Keith Curle, who has acknowledged that it is his job to get the best out of his “complex” striker.
A home game with Crewe, who were beaten 3-0 by Mansfield on Tuesday and have kept two clean sheets in eight away games this season, is the perfect chance for him to extend his good home form.
5. Crawley v MK Dons (15:00)
Crawley have scored 18 goals in their eight League Two home matches this season, including at least one in all of them, with BTTS only not landing against sides in the bottom half.
It is hard to look past goals going in at both ends for the visit of second-place MK Dons, who have netted in each of their last 13 league games.
The Dons’ only away clean sheets have come against bottom-half sides, so look sure to concede to their 11th-place hosts.
6. PSV -1 v Vitesse (17:30)
PSV are top of the Eredivisie with 10 wins from 10 games, and they should extend that perfect streak with a comfortable victory at home to Vitesse.
The champions have won their five league games at home by an aggregate score of 23-1, including a 6-0 win to Emmen last time out.
Vitesse have lost their last two away games in the league and will be unable to keep this one close.
7. Levante (+1) v Villarreal (15:15)
Villarreal were held to a 3-3 draw with second-tier Almeria in the Copa del Rey on Thursday and have won just one of their last seven matches in all competitions.
The Yellow Submarine are just one place above the relegation zone in La Liga and have earned just two points from five home games in the league.
Levante have won four straight league games, including a 2-1 victory away to Real Madrid, and are an excellent price to avoid defeat.
8. Basel v Lugano (15:00)
This Swiss Super League game should be one for the neutrals, featuring two teams that have been involved in a combined 21 BTTS games out of 23 this season.
Basel have scored 22 goals in 12 league games so far, but are yet to keep a clean sheet, having conceded to each of the bottom four at home.
Fifth-bottom Lugano have also have found the net in all but one of their league games so far, including a 2-2 draw against Basel in September’s return fixture.
9. Andy Delort (Montpellier) to score v Marseille (20:00)
Given that he has scored in five consecutive league matches, Delort is sensational value to hit the net against Marseille on Saturday.
The 27-year-old ranks fifth for xG, ninth for shots and 11th for shots inside the penalty area in Ligue 1, suggesting that his goalscoring rate is somewhat sustainable, while he is also a proficient penalty-taker.
Marseille have conceded at least twice in all but one of their six away games this season, and rank sixth-bottom for xG away from home, so are sure to concede chances to the in-form forward.
10. New York City to beat Atlanta United (00:30)
Atlanta United capitulated on Decision Day, losing 4-1 away to Toronto and missing out on the Supporters’ Shield.
They had to play that game without MVP nominee Miguel Almiron, who has contributed 23 goals this season, and technical director Carlos Bocanegra has confirmed the Paraguayan’s involvement will be limited at Yankee Stadium.
New York City beat Philadelphia 3-1 at home for the second consecutive game in the preliminary play-off round and are a good price to take a lead into the second leg.
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