Nabil Fekir (Lyon) to score v Barcelona

Fekir has scored eight goals in his last 13 matches, while his underlying numbers are good enough to suggest that he can continue his form even away at Barcelona.

The Frenchman ranks sixth for shots per match in the Champions League so far this season and is 16th for shots inside the box. In Ligue 1, only 17 players have a better xG per minute.

Also established on set-pieces and penalties, Fekir has to be taken at such a big price to score his fourth European goal of the season at the Nou Camp, where Barca have conceded in five of their last six games.

The La Liga leaders rank sixth-bottom for xG against at home domestically and are vulnerable to strong counter-attacking teams like Lyon.

Che Adams (Birmingham) to score v Millwall

Millwall have conceded at least twice in 10 of their last 16 away games, including their last two at Hull and Bolton, so backing Birmingham goals should prove profitable here.

And after he went closest to scoring for the hosts in Sunday’s Second City derby, Adams looks a good bet to net his 22nd goal of the season.

The striker had scored four goals in his side’s four previous home matches and ranks inside the top 15 for shots inside the penalty area per Championship home match this season.

Sean Maguire (Preston) to score v Middlesbrough

In a limited fixture list, it is worth taking a risk on a Preston forward to score away at Middlesbrough, who have only kept a clean sheet against QPR in their last five home matches.

Alex Neil’s side have scored an impressive 12 goals in their last five away games, with Maguire fronting their attack. He has scored two goals in their last five games, with his numbers suggesting that there are more to come.

He ranks top in the Preston squad for shots in the penalty area per Championship away match.

Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa) to score v Nottingham Forest

Abraham has been too prolific this season to let a few misses at Birmingham on Sunday put me off backing him to score here.

The striker has netted 17 goals in his last 20 appearances. No striker has had more attempts on goal per Championship away game, with only Norwich’s Teemu Pukki beating him for shots inside the penalty area.

Forest have kept consecutive clean sheets at the City Ground, but conceded several decent goalscoring chances to Hull on Saturday. Abraham will punish them if they do similar in this one.


*Odds subject to change.

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