Francesco Caputo (Empoli) to score v Frosinone (11:30)

Caputo has scored three goals this season, and his underlying data suggests he will continue to net in the coming weeks.

Almost all of the 31-year-old’s shots are high-quality chances. Despite the fact that he ranks 29th for attempts on goal in Serie A, he is 13th for shots inside the penalty area and sixth for xG, according to Understat.

He is a cracking bet to score against Frosinone, who have conceded nine goals in their last three home matches, eight of which have been scored by strikers.

Vedad Ibisevic (Hertha Berlin) to score v Freiburg (14:30)

You won’t find a better price anywhere for the in-form forward to score at home to leaky opposition.

Ibisevic has scored in all three of Hertha Berlin’s home matches this season – including a brace against Borussia Monchengladbach and a penalty against Bayern Munich – and ranks third for xG by Understat in the entire division, suggesting that chances will continue to come.

Given that Freiburg have conceded eight goals in three away games and rank bottom for xG against away from home in the Bundesliga, this is an unmissable price for Ibisevic to add to his tally.

Richarlison (Everton) to score v Crystal Palace (16:00)

Richarlison’s £40m price tag does not look so silly now, with four goals in six Premier League matches and a brace on debut for Brazil representing a successful start to his Everton career.

The 21-year-old ranks 17th for shots per Premier League match this season – a metric he topped of all non-big six players last term – and will likely start this game as the Toffees’ main striker.

Heading a supply line of Theo Walcott, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Bernard, he can net against Crystal Palace, who have conceded twice to Bournemouth and Watford – the two top-half teams that they have faced on the road – already this season.

Loren Moron (Real Betis) to score v Real Valladolid (19:45)

Moron had scored in consecutive matches prior to Betis’ difficult away game at Atletico Madrid last time out, and he is a nice bet to repeat the trick on Sunday.

The Spaniard ranks 11th for shots inside the penalty area per La Liga match, is 13th for xG (Understat) across the whole division, and comes up against generous opposition.

Valladolid conceded three goals in their last away game but one at Celta Vigo in September, and are rated in xG as the fourth-worst defence away from home in La Liga.


*Odds subject to change.

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