Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa) to score v Birmingham (12:00)

The return of Jack Grealish prompted an upturn in fortunes for both Aston Villa and Abraham against Derby last weekend, so the striker is a nice bet to benefit from his team-mate’s creativity again in the Second City derby on Sunday.

The Chelsea loanee scored his 21st goal of the season in last week’s match, and more should follow. He ranks second for both shots and shots inside the penalty area per Championship away match this season and is an established penalty-taker.

Birmingham, who conceded to Abraham in November’s reverse fixture, have shipped nine goals in their last five games, including two to struggling Blackburn last time out at St Andrew’s.

Ishak Belfodil (Hoffenheim) to score v Nuremberg (14:30)

Belfodil has scored four goals in four matches since nailing down a spot as Hoffenheim’s starting striker, so he looks a fantastic odds-against bet to net against bottom-club Nuremberg on Sunday.

The striker ranks 11th for xG per minute in the Bundesliga in that period and sits sixth for shots and fourth for shots inside the penalty area per match overall this season.

Hoffenheim beat 17th-placed Hannover 3-0 in their last home match and can do similar to a Nuremberg side that have conceded at least twice in nine consecutive league away games.

Rodrigo Moreno (Valencia) to score v Girona (15:15)

Having successfully tipped Rodrigo to score last weekend, backing him again at such a big price is an easy pick.

The Spaniard scored a match-winning brace against Krasnodar in the Europa League on Thursday, before being substituted early in order to be ready for this match.

Not only does he have four goals in his last three matches, but he ranks sixth for shots and eighth for shots inside the penalty area per match and fourth for xG in La Liga this season.

Girona have only kept three clean sheets from 16 games this season and rank second-bottom for xG against at home, so they are sure to give up good goalscoring chances.

Mario Balotelli (Marseille) to score v Nice (20:00)

You can be sure that, one or way or another, Balotelli will steal the headlines here, as he takes on the side that he left in acrimonious circumstances in January.

And given that the Italian has scored four goals in six appearances since making that move, backing the story to include at least one goal seems a sensible bet.

He ranks ninth for xG in that period and leads all of Marseille’s many strikers in shots per game.

Nice have conceded 16 goals in their last seven away matches and rank third-bottom for xG against away from home.


*Odds subject to change.

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