These five pointers for each division in the EFL can help you avoid gambling gaffes during the new season.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Bielsa burnout is a thing
Marcelo Bielsa’s training methods are well known for taking a lot out his players physically.
Leeds were three points clear at the top of the table after their opening 24 league games, having been beaten just three times, but lost 10 of their remaining 22 after Boxing Day and finished third.
The Championship isn’t necessarily that competitive
Last season’s top three won a combined total of 48 of their 72 matches against sides that finished in the bottom half, losing just 10 times.
Eight of those defeats came from third-placed Leeds, whose form capitulated in the second half of the season.
Don’t pile into the relegated teams
The average position of a relegated team over the last 16 years has been eighth.
Only 10 of the 48 sides coming down from the Premier League have been promoted at the first time of asking, while 11 have finished in the bottom half.
Expect cards from Forest and Derby
Nottingham Forest finished bottom of the disciplinary table last season, having accrued 102 bookings – more than any other side – and six red cards.
The Rams weren’t far behind, with 96 yellows coming from 236 fouls – the second-highest total in the Championship.
Never back Wigan on the road
The Latics had the worst travelling record of any side that stayed up last season, earning just 11 points away from the DW Stadium.
They have managed seven victories from their last 46 away games in the Championship, so should be avoided on their travels.
LEAGUE ONE
Peterborough are fast starters, but slow finishers
Posh have been in the top three after 10 games in five of their last seven seasons in League One.
They have gone on to finish lower than that every time, only twice qualifying for the play-offs.
Sunderland draw a lot of games
No side in the EFL drew more games than Sunderland (19) last season, while 11 of their 22 victories came by a single goal.
Given that the Black Cats have failed to address the lack of creativity in their squad this summer, we can expect more of the same this term.
…and you should back them to finish 1-1
The Mackems only failed to score in one of their 46 league games last season, while BTTS landed in 72 per cent of their fixtures – the highest proportion in the EFL.
Of their 19 league draws, 15 finished 1-1.
Fleetwood are a team in the image of their manager
The Cod Army finished comfortably bottom of the League One disciplinary table last season.
Joey Barton’s side were issued with 103 yellow cards – 10 more than any other side – and had eight players sent off.
Back the overs in Rochdale games
Despite staying up, Rochdale conceded 87 league goals last season – more than any side in the EFL – and shipped three or more goals on 16 occasions.
There were over 2.5 goals in 30 of their 46 league games – the highest proportion in League One.
LEAGUE TWO
Salford won’t walk the league
The average position for a side promoted from the National League in their first EFL season is 13th.
The Ammies didn’t win any of their first three games last term and ultimately had to settle for promotion through the play-offs.
You can rely on Mansfield’s defence
Mansfield conceded fewer goals than any other side in League Two last season, letting in just 41.
They also kept 18 clean sheets – the second-most in the division – and won 13 league games to nil.
Back Crewe at home, but steer clear on the road
Crewe had the fifth-best home record in League Two last season, picking up one fewer point than Bury, who were the division’s best home team.
But the Alex had the third-worst travelling record, earning just 18 points on the road – only one more than the division’s worst away side.
Macclesfield will struggle to score goals
Macclesfield managed just 10 victories last season and were the only side last season not to win a single game by a margin of three or more goals.
The Silkmen have lost top scorers Scott Wilson and Harry Smith, who netted 10 and nine league goals respectively in 2018/19.
A poor start isn’t terminal
In the last 15 season, just 10 teams have occupied a spot in the League Two relegation zone after 10 games and been relegated.
Two of those sides were Luton in 2008/09 and Cambridge in 2004/05, who had been docked 30 and 10 points respectively.
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