Aston Villa v Derby
Aston Villa’s late-season form coincided with captain Jack Grealish’s return from injury, and he can be the match winner at Wembley on Monday.
Grealish has started 12 of his side’s last 14 matches, having missed the previous 14 through injury, and has been directly involved in seven goals.
Villa have won 10 and drawn one of those games, with the only defeat in that sequence coming against West Brom in the play-off semi-final, which they ultimately won on penalties.
Dean Smith’s side also won both of their league games against Derby by an aggregate score of 7-0.
The Rams come into the play-off final on the back of a 4-2 comeback victory over Leeds at Elland Road, but they have failed to consistently produce that level of performance.
Frank Lampard’s side had won just one of their previous 11 league games away from Pride Park and will also be without suspended full back Scott Malone, who was sent off late into the second leg against Leeds.
At , it’s Villa that represent the better value for promotion.
Charlton v Sunderland
The League One play-off final is much harder to call, with the tight nature of the game reflected in both Charlton respective prices for promotion.
The Addicks come into the match in better form, despite a 3-2 defeat at home to Doncaster in the second leg of their semi-final last Friday.
Lee Bowyer’s side had won 12 and lost just one of their previous 15 league games in a run that included victories over top-six sides Portsmouth and Luton.
Key man Lyle Taylor has also hit form at exactly the right time.
The 29-year-old is his side’s top scorer this season having netted 25 times in 44 appearances. That includes six in his last six, including one in the play-offs against Doncaster.
The absence of a key player for Sunderland, meanwhile, could prove decisive.
Aiden McGeady has scored 14 goals this season, but has not featured in any of the Black Cats’ last four matches and is a doubt for the final.
Jack Ross’ side have won just one of their last six matches, and also have recent experience of defeat at Wembley after losing on penalties to Portsmouth in the Checkatrade Trophy final at the end of March.
The best bet here is Charlton.
Newport v Tranmere
In League Two, the value is with Newport at .
The Exiles came into the play-offs in better form than any other side, having gone unbeaten in their final 10 league games.
Mike Flynn’s side have extended that run by a further two matches after two draws and a penalty shoot-out victory over Mansfield in their semi-final.
They were deserved winners against the Stags, who finished five points and three places above them, and should perform well against a Tranmere side they took four points from this term.
Rovers are winless in their last five matches away from Prenton Park and have netted just seven goals in their last 10 on the road.
That six of those were scored by 32-goal forward James Norwood highlights a lack of threat elsewhere on the pitch, confirmed by the fact they rank just ninth for xG over the course of the season (experimental361).
Newport have kept eight clean sheets in their last 12 matches, conceding just four goals, and another strong defensive performance will get them over the line here.
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