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Here are Adam Drury's football tips for Manchester City v Watford on Saturday.


Man City to win & under 3.5 goals

City have won 15 of their last 16 games, a run dating back to when they won the EFL Cup at Wembley in February.

Nine of those 15 wins have featured fewer than 3.5 goals, with Sunday’s 4-1 win at Brighton ending a four-match sequence of 1-0 and 2-0 victories.

This bet would have landed in nine of Watford’s 12 league games against the top six this season. They lost 2-1 to City at Vicarage Road in December, and held them to 0-0 until half-time before losing 3-1 at the Etihad in March.

Aymeric Laporte to score

Watford conceded twice from set-pieces in their 3-0 defeat to Chelsea a fortnight ago, and in their semi-final against Wolves last month.

Laporte, who has scored five goals this season and ranks sixth of regular Premier League defenders for xG, is the likeliest to take advantage of that weakness.

Etienne Capoue to be carded

Capoue has been carded in all of his last six matches, equalling the Premier League record for most yellow cards in a season in the process.

He ranks top for tackles and second for fouls in Watford’s squad, and is a key man in preventing City from getting into their flow.

Will Hughes to be carded

The Hornets ended the Premier League season with comfortably the worst disciplinary record in the division, so it makes sense to back another of their players to be carded.

Hughes ranked fourth for fouls in the entire league this season. He is a nice bet to add to his five bookings.


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