Duvan Zapata (Atalanta) to score v Frosinone (11:30)
Having scored at least once in each of his last seven appearances, Zapata more than justifies his narrowly odds-on price to net at Frosinone on Sunday.
That prolific run includes a hat-trick away at Udinese in December and a goal in each of Atalanta’s three subsequent away fixtures. His xG per 90 minutes throughout this sequence is 0.95, which proves that his goals are sustainable for this weekend’s game.
Frosinone, who are currently only spared bottom place in Serie A by Chievo’s points deduction, have conceded 16 goals in their last eight home games, so will struggle to hold their in-form hosts.
Roger Marti (Levante) to score v Real Valladolid (17:00)
Roger was rested for both legs of Levante’s Copa del Rey tie with Barcelona over the last fortnight, so is well rested for this game against Real Valladolid.
The striker has eight goals this season, with many more an inevitability. He ranks 10th in La Liga for shots per game and is sixth for xG per minute of players to have made 10 or more La Liga appearances.
Valladolid have conceded in all of their last seven away games, with their xG rank of fourth-bottom away from home in La Liga suggesting that they will soon start conceding at a far higher rate.
Steven Skrzybski (Schalke) to score v Wolfsburg (17:30)
There is a risk that Skrzybski won’t start this match, but it is one worth taking.
The striker has made an exceptional start to life in the Schalke first team, scoring three goals in just four starts, including one in the last game before the winter break at Stuttgart.
His xG per 90 minutes ranks fifth of players with five or more Bundesliga appearances, while he has taken 2.0 shots per game, the highest in the hosts’ squad.
If he keeps up those numbers, he will not be such a short price to score in future home matches.
Lois Diony (St Etienne) to score v Lyon (20:00)
Wahbi Khazri has been taking the headlines after scoring six goals in five matches for St Etienne, but he holds little appeal at a price close to evens given that his xG during that run is just 3.05.
By contrast, Diony, who is available at over double the price of his strike partner, is bound to start scoring more frequently soon. His numbers are similar to Khazri’s, while the pair have taken exactly the same number of penalty-area shots this season (1.3).
Back the Frenchman to add to his tally of five goals for the season against a Lyon side that have conceded twice in three of their last four league away games.
*Odds subject to change.
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