2019/20 Bundesliga tips: Best outright bets for the restart
We run through all the outright markets ahead of the Bundesliga restart this weekend.
WINNER: RB LEIPZIG
Boring as it is, we need to start by acknowledging that Bayern Munich are probably going to win the title.
They have won the Bundesliga in each of the last seven seasons and have a record 29 league titles to their name. Simply, they are a machine.
So, with Hans-Dieter Flick’s side four points clear at the top with nine games to go, their price of is understandable.
But we can do better than that. For those that like a long shot, the best value is with third-placed RB Leipzig at .
The Red Bulls are one point back on Dortmund, whose price is almost half of theirs, and five behind the league leaders.
Crucially, Leipzig’s run-in is much kinder than that of their competitors.
Aside from a potentially pivotal home game against Dortmund in the penultimate game of the season, they face no team above eighth position.
Bayern, meanwhile, must face top-five sides Dortmund, Borussia Monchengladbach and Leverkusen in their final nine matches.
The Bavarians lost the reverse fixtures against the latter two earlier in the season, so it would be no surprise to see them drop points.
WINNER WITHOUT BAYERN MUNICH: RB LEIPZIG
For the reasons explained above, Julian Nagelsmann’s side are the best mixture of value and likely outcome in this market.
This tip offers a little more flexibility for the more risk averse. With only one point between them and second-placed Dortmund, who are priced at , it just makes sense.
TOP-FOUR FINISH: LEVERKUSEN
There is little point in backing Dortmund or Leipzig to finish in the top four, with both sides priced at 1/50 to do so.
Instead, the best betting in this market is to be had in the battle for fourth place. It’s Leverkusen who are of most interest.
Peter Bosz’s side went into lockdown in better shape than any other in the Bundesliga, having won nine of their previous 10 matches in all competitions.
They have lost only one of their 13 games since the turn of the year and currently sit two points behind fourth-placed Borussia Monchengladbach, who they play in the second game after restarting.
Gladbach’s own form was inconsistent prior to the league’s suspension, with five wins from their last 12 league games.
The on offer for them to maintain their position feels too skinny to get behind, especially with five away games to come in their final nine matches. They have won four out of 13 on the road.
Relegation is a little more complicated in the Bundesliga.
The bottom two go straight down and the side that finishes third-bottom enter into a two-legged play-off with the third-placed side in the second tier.
Bottom-of-the-league Paderborn are rightfully priced at to go down.
They are 10 points from guaranteed safety and, having won just four games all season, need a miracle.
Two points ahead of them, second-bottom Werder Bremen represent better value at .
The former double winners have managed two victories from their last 20 league games and picked up four points from their last 11.
Although they have a game in hand, Florian Kohfeldt’s side are four points behind the play-off place and eight off fourth-bottom Mainz.
But the best value to be had is in backing a third side to potentially join them. At , it’s Augsburg who stick out.
They have lost seven of their last nine matches, with their only victory in that period coming against Werder Bremen. No side has picked up fewer points (four) than them over that period.
Augsburg do have a five-point buffer between themselves and 16th-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf but, with games against teams around them coming up, are vulnerable.
TOP SCORER: ROBERT LEWANDOWSKI
There really isn’t a great deal to say here.
Lewandowski has scored 25 league goals in 23 appearances and is four up on his nearest challenger Timo Werner, whose price of is not tempting.
The Polish striker has also got 11 more than third-placed Jadon Sancho and has an xG of 23.6 – five better than any other player in the division.
Whether Bayern Munich perform well or not after the restart, it seems inconceivable that he won’t add to his total.
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