Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off tonight in Buffalo\u2019s shiny new home, Highmark Stadium, as the Bills (1-0) host the Detroit Lions (1-0), in what many football traditionalists hope is a Super Bowl preview.<\/p>\n
Sunday brings a full slate of games, followed by the Monday night game in L.A., where the New York Giants take on the Rams.<\/p>\n
Bettors are sorting through what\u2019s fact versus what\u2019s fiction after Week 1. Looking over all the offensive explosions, surprising upsets, and warning signs around teams expected to contend (I\u2019m looking at you, L.A. Rams), what\u2019s real and what\u2019s noise?<\/p>\n
That\u2019s what I am thinking about as I make my NFL Week 2 picks against the spread.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"editor_block","content":"
How much should one game change your opinion about a team? The Chicago Bears dominated the bigger line movements Sunday night across the NFL, after last weekend\u2019s blowout win over the Carolina Panthers. So did the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders.<\/p>\n
And there\u2019s no way that was the real Bo Nix and Denver Broncos in their Monday Night blowout loss to the Chiefs.<\/p>\n
Injuries add another layer to your calculation, of course. Kyler Murray is out with a concussion and won\u2019t start at quarterback this week for Minnesota against the Bears in Chicago. The Lions have losses in their secondary, facing Bills QB Josh Allen tonight, and are also missing two offensive linemen. Texans star receiver Nico Collins injured a hamstring during practice and is uncertain to play against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.<\/p>\n
Am I overvaluing Chicago\u2019s 59-point opener, and is the Giants\u2019 improvement under John Harbaugh and the emergence of Jaxson Dart real enough to bet them as 6.5-point underdogs against the Rams Monday night?<\/p>\n
The Bills were impressive in Week 1, but tonight against Detroit is a tougher test, even with the injuries. And do the Dallas Cowboys, Texans, and the Rams offer any ATS bounceback value after their disappointing Week 1 results?<\/p>\n
Several teams are looking at 0-2 pressure games. Denver, Houston, Dallas, Miami and Tennessee and several others are trying to avoid 0-2 starts. The Broncos especially, hosting a Jaguars team coming off a 34-10 win over the Browns.<\/p>\n
Another factor for ATS bettor \u2013 many of this weekend\u2019s games have divisional familiarity. Raiders-Chargers, Vikings-Bears, Cowboys-Commanders, all involve teams that know each other\u2019s schemes and personnel well. That can complicate any conclusions you may have gleaned from Week 1.<\/p>\n
And how bad is Miami, 13.5-point underdogs on the road in San Francisco?<\/span><\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"editor_block","content":" The big trend is bettors resisting the temptation to chase opening-week results. Since 2019, NFL favourites have won 64.6% of Week 2 games outright but covered just 40.2% of the time. Home favourites performed especially poorly there at 35.1%. Based on data I’ve seen since 2016, Week 2 road underdogs between +1 and +6.5 are 44-17 ATS.<\/p>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"editor_block","content":" So where do I go with my NFL betting picks<\/u><\/a> for Week 2?<\/p>\nNFL Week 2 Betting Trends<\/h2>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"editor_block","content":"
NFL Week 2 Picks Against the Spread<\/h2>\n"},{"acf_fc_layout":"editor_block","content":"