Two of the world's top men's players meet for the Wimbledon title this morning as bettors weigh Sinner's recent dominance over Zverev
It’s breakfast in Wimbledon, with the men’s final set for later this morning (11 a.m. EST), as defending champion Jannik Sinner takes on French Open champion Alexander Zverev in a matchup that has some interesting ingredients..
Where do we start? You have two of the world’s top three players in the ATP rankings: No. 1 Sinner and No. 3 Zverev. You have the reigning Wimbledon champion against the reigning French Open champion. And you have a rivalry that has been dominated by Sinner in recent meetings.
For bettors, as you butter your crumpets and pour a cup of English Breakfast tea, one question stands above the rest: Can anyone stop Sinner?
The Italian has owned Zverev, with nine consecutive match wins over the German (10-4 overall), giving him a large psychological advantage going in.
Sinner has also been particularly lethal of late, dominating Novak Djokovic in a straight-set victory in the semi-final, serving exceptionally well in that match (16 aces, winning 88% of points behind his first serve).
“I tried to stay quite aggressive, serving very well which helped me a lot today,” said Sinner. “[Djokovic’s] probably the best returner we have in our game, so I tried to mix it up.”
If bettors are looking for one statistic that should jump off the page heading into Sunday’s final, that would be it.
Sinner enters this morning’s match with a strong grass record and a 13-match Wimbledon streak (including his seven-match championship sweep in 2025).
Zverev is a worthy opponent, with wins over Taylor Fritz in the quarters and Arthur Fery in the semis (7-6(0), 6-2, 6-4). His massive serve is a competitive advantage, and he has the momentum of Roland Garros, looking mentally sharp, but he’s never won a grass title.
“The big thing against Sinner is the last nine times they’ve played, Sinner has absolutely dominated him on his serve,” said Brad Gilbert, the former coach of Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick, on Tennis Channel’s The Big T podcast. “He has got to be flexible in changing his position, maybe be a little more unpredictable, returning in. Do some different things.”
That’s a tall order, the way the Italian is playing (five titles YTD, 37/3 YTD W/L). In tennis betting at Betway, Sinner is the huge favorite, at -500, with Zverev at +350.
Sinner is a deserved favorite, but his moneyline is a little too expensive for many bettors. If you are putting money down on this morning’s match, the better value may lie in alternate markets, like total games and exact-set-score wagers.
If Sinner keeps serving the way he has throughout the tournament, Under 38.5 total games (-120) stands out as option. Bettors looking for a bigger return can look at Under 37.5 games (+100), while Under 39.5 games offers a more conservative play at -138.
But I think I am going to go Sinner Alternate Set Handicap (-1.5), at -225, with the history between the two, and with Sinner’s recent ATP domination, suggests this won’t be a five-set grind-it-out affair.
The men’s final feels like it will go Sinner 3-0, or 3-1. Maybe Zverev’s serve wins him a set. So I am going Sinner 3-1 (+240).
Having a major sports event play out the way it should will be welcome relief, on the sports betting end of things. I am still brushing the dust off after getting knocked to the surface last night, watching Conor McGregor blow out his knee 69 seconds into his UFC 329 welterweight fight with Max Holloway.
