The WBA super-middleweight world title is up for grabs at Wembley Arena on Saturday night, as well as a place in the World Boxing Super Series semi-final against Chris Eubank Jr.
While Groves is still probably best known for losing twice to Carl Froch, the Londoner is the only super-middleweight world champion in this tournament and is on the best run of his career.
He’s won seven of his eight fights since he was stopped by Froch at Wembley, with his only defeat a split decision against Badou Jack – who’s now a two-weight world champion.
The 29-year-old looked excellent in his last fight, finally winning a world title by blasting Fedor Chudinov out in six rounds.
Cox is a decent fighter with a perfect record after 24 fights, but he lacks the size and experience to really trouble Groves.
Even though he’s 31 years old, the Swindon southpaw has only had one fight in his 10-year career scheduled for 12 rounds – a technical decision win over Lewis Taylor that was decided by a cut from an accidental clash of heads.
He’s got little more than a puncher’s chance here, and – with a 54 per cent knockout rate and having started his career at welterweight – he’s not much of a puncher.
Groves is a natural super-middleweight and is also far more skilful than Cox, and will likely control this fight from the first round with his excellent jab.
He’s had no trouble with lefties in the past, having beaten James DeGale – arguably the division’s best southpaw – by majority decision in 2011.
This will be a routine win, and, like three of Groves’ last five fights, it should end inside the distance.
All of the champion’s 19 knockout victories have come inside the first seven rounds, so backing him to win between the fifth and eighth round – at our boosted price of – is a sensible bet.