Boxing tips: Canelo v GGG betting odds and predictions
Jack Green makes his prediction for Saturday night's trilogy fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.
Canelo v GGG odds
Two of the greatest fighters of the 21st century face off for the third time on Saturday night, as Canelo Alvarez takes on Gennady Golovkin in a trilogy fight in Las Vegas.
The pair met in back-to-back fights in 2017 and 2018, with the first fight ending in a controversial split draw and the second in a majority decision win for Alvarez.
Both of those fights were extremely close, with Canelo – arguably the biggest star in the sport – getting the nod from the judges.
Since they last met, Alvarez has gone 8-1, becoming the undisputed super middleweight champion and winning a light heavyweight title in the process. He’s coming off just the second defeat of his career, though, having challenged Dmitry Bivol for the WBA light heavyweight title in May 2022 but lost by unanimous decision.
The Mexican is now back at his natural weight and ready to defend his five belts against his biggest rival.
Since losing to Alvarez in 2018, Golovkin has won four straight fights against decent – but not elite – opponents. He’s battled injuries but won three world titles at middleweight during that period, and now steps up to super middleweight for the first time in his career against Canelo.
Despite how close their previous meetings have been, Alvarez is the clear favourite for this trilogy fight, currently priced at .
Golovkin, meanwhile, is to take revenge in an upset.
Canelo v GGG prediction
In the build-up to this fight, much has been made of Golovkin’s decision to finally step up to super middleweight.
Most fighters naturally move up the divisions as they get older and cutting weight becomes increasingly taxing, but GGG has kept himself in fantastic shape throughout his career and has never had an issue making the middleweight limit.
And although Canelo is clearly more comfortable at super middleweight, the step up shouldn’t be much of an issue for Golovkin. He’s two inches taller than Alvarez, and might be better for not having to lose those extra few pounds in the final days before fight night.
What isn’t in Golovkin’s favour, however, is his age. Now 40, he’s surely nearing the end of his professional career, and it would be no surprise if he hung up his gloves after Saturday night, regardless of the result.
Although he’s won four in a row since being beaten by Canelo, he often hasn’t looked at his devastating best. During his prime, he was one of the world’s biggest punchers and fought at a pace that few opponents could keep up with, but the 32-year-old Alvarez should have a clear physical advantage on Saturday night.
In winning world titles in four different weight classes, Canelo has proven he’s one of the great all-round fighters of the modern era, capable of beating the best the world has to offer from 154-175lbs.
The Mexican probably won’t stop GGG, who has an incredible chin, but he has the combination of speed and power to at least slow him down. They went toe-to-toe throughout the second fight, and it was GGG who was regularly forced to back off.
If Golovkin has one weakness, it’s the body, and that’s one of the areas where Canelo excels. Expect him to target the midriff early on, wearing the older man down before the fight reaches the later rounds.
Canelo arguably received favourable decisions in both meetings with GGG to date, but he likely won’t need any home cooking from the Las Vegas judges on this occasion. It won’t necessarily be one-sided, but the undisputed champion will likely build enough of a lead to claim another win and put an end to this rivalry for good.
Best bet: Canelo to win by decision