Boxing tips: Alvarez v Smith odds and predictions
Jack Green makes his prediction for Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez's super middleweight title fight against Callum Smith in Texas on Saturday night.
Alvarez v Smith odds
Callum Smith has the chance to become a boxing superstar on Saturday night in a super middleweight unification bout against Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez.
Smith won the WBA (Super) and The Ring titles when he beat George Groves in the World Boxing Super Series final back in September 2018, and has twice defended those titles since.
He beat Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam by TKO at Madison Square Garden in June 2019 before beating John Ryder on points the following November.
Smith’s belts, along with the vacant WBC title, are up for grabs at the Alamodome in Texas this weekend when he takes on the biggest star in world boxing.
Alvarez is a four-weight world champion, having stopped Sergey Kovalev in the 11th round to win the WBO light heavyweight title in his last fight back in November 2019.
Canelo has now held titles in the 154lb, 160lb, 168lb and 175lb divisions, and has beaten massive names including Shane Mosley, Miguel Cotto, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr and Gennady Golovkin across his 56-fight career.
Floyd Mayweather is still the only fighter to beat Alvarez to date, and the Mexican has won 11 and drawn one of his 12 fights since that defeat back in September 2013.
Canelo is a clear favourite to win on Saturday and become a super middleweight champion for the second time, while Smith is the underdog at .
Alvarez v Smith prediction
Smith proved himself as a top-class super middleweight by beating Groves in very impressive fashion.
He thoroughly outboxed one of the division’s most experienced and technical champions of the past 10 years, and secured the knockout in the seventh round.
This is going to be a much stiffer test for the Liverpudlian, though.
Alvarez is top of several publications’ pound-for-pound rankings, and seems to only be getting better with the way he dismantled Kovalev – a much bigger man – in his last fight.
At 30, Canelo is still only just in his prime and he’s accrued a huge amount of experience at the top level.
It’s hard to see how Smith wins this fight, especially considering his greatest strength – his 6ft 3in frame and the reach advantage it affords him – actually makes him particularly vulnerable in this fight.
Alvarez is one of the world’s best body punchers, and he will have plenty of opportunity to fire hooks at Smith’s midsection here given the height difference.
Smith may be able to keep Alvarez at bay with his reach early on, but it seems inevitable that Canelo will do enough cumulative damage throughout the fight to secure a stoppage late on, just as he did to Kovalev.
Alvarez to win in rounds 10-12
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