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NBA Finals betting tips: Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 picks and predictions

09 Jun | BY Shane McNichol | MIN READ TIME |
NBA Finals betting tips: Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 picks and predictions

Shane McNichol makes his NBA predictions for Game 4 of the Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.

All the latest NBA odds can be found on the Betway sportsbook. Before finalising your online sports betting selections, make sure to check out our expert’s NBA picks and NBA predictions.

After Denver stole Game 3 on the road in South Florida, the Nuggets have control of the NBA Finals and raised the stakes of Game 4.

If Miami can’t reset the series with a win, Denver will return to the Rocky Mountains for a chance to close out the championship in Game 5.

If that isn’t reason enough to get excited for tonight’s action, here are my four favorite bets on the board for this critical Game 4.

Nuggets half-time/full-time {ODDS:1154621947:1.95}

We picked this for Game 3 and it hit. Let’s jump right back on the horse for Game 4.

Denver is the better basketball team in this matchup. They are favoured, even in a nearly-must-win scenario for the Heat, who are playing at home.

To be able to bet on the Nuggets to outplay the Heat in both halves and get better than even odds feels like a coup.

Miami has every chance to compete and win this game, yet the smart money is sticking with Denver to take care of business.

Over 210.5 total points {ODDS:1154635173:1.90}

To date, the Miami Heat have played 21 postseason games. Their first five playoff games, in the series against Milwaukee, all featured not just 210+ points, but north of 220 total points. In fact, 11 of Miami’s first 15 playoff games this year featured more than 210.5 points.

Since then, however, the later rounds of the playoffs have led to grinding, slower games. Just one of the Heat’s last six games has eclipsed this mark. That feels unsustainable, with regression to the mean on its way.

This number looks even better after analysing Denver’s postseason. In 18 games, the Nuggets and their opponent have failed to total 210.5 points just four times.

Max Strus over 8.5 points {ODDS:1154644338:1.87}

After Strus’ brutal 0-9 outside shooting performance in Game 1, we jumped on his made three-pointers prop for Game 2 and again for Game 3, even when it was listed at 2.5.

In this series, Strus is shooting just 21.7 per cent from long range and has made just over a quarter of his threes in his last eight games. His value on the court for Miami depends on his shooting and his place within the Heat offensive scheme depends on it.

Strus should continue to fire when open, with a hot shooting night sure to follow at some point. The right process here is to stick with the most likely outcome, expecting a good shooter to return to form.

We’ll shift to total points, with more juice here.

Christian Braun under 2.5 rebounds 

Before Game 3, this would have felt like a very obscure pick, yet Braun was the talk of the night after pitching in 15 points off the bench. His energy off the bench was exactly what Denver needed in the second half to run away and secure the road victory.

Even if that performance earns the rookie more minutes moving forward, I still don’t love his chances to make an impact on the glass.

In Denver’s 18 postseason games, Braun has cleared 2.5 rebounds just five times. He’s had more games with under 10 minutes played (seven) than games with three or more rebounds (five).

I doubt he flashes in the box score again tonight, especially not with a gaudy number of rebounds.

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Shane McNichol

Shane McNichol is a basketball writer who makes weekly NBA picks for the Betway Insider. 

Shane McNichol

Shane McNichol is a basketball writer who makes weekly NBA picks for the Betway Insider. 

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